Tuesday, September 29, 2009

Can Asian spending close the gap? II

Front page of WSJ yesterday asks this question in an article about Chinese companies trying to tap into domestic demand. There are some interesting graphs here. Chinese consumption growth has outdone any other area of the world since 1992. Of course it is easy to double (or triple in this case) a value when it starts out so small. Clearly this growth is still in it's nascent stages, and the dissipation of Chinese stimulus spending is aiding the continuation of spending. Olivier Blanchard, Economic Counsellor and Director of the IMF’s Research Department, chimes in on this subject reiterating that spending in other parts of the world are needed to get the recovery going. "Two rebalancing acts will have to come into play. First, rebalancing from public to private spending. Second, rebalancing aggregate demand across countries, with a shift from domestic to foreign demand in the United States and a reverse shift from foreign to domestic demand in the rest of the world, particularly in Asia.". Certainly the recent slide in the Yen will make imports much more attractive. This may be an intentional strategy to reduce Japan's dependence on exports. China will be paying attention.

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